Well I was anticipating today to be a catalyst for the euro to bust out of is current range of 4470-4575. I guess I need to wait a little longer for that to happen because all through the european session the euro drops, statistically i should have taken a long at 4480 but i wanted to wait for the Trichet speech.
Right when the conference began the Euro began to climb. it ascended from 4477 to 4520. Before the end of the conference the Euro was back to sub 4480. During the conference Trichet was asked a question about the Euro being overvalued and hurting some of the European Nations. Trichet really hesitated. I do watch Trichet a lot, and i have never seen him try to avoid answering a question the way he did. He answered by saying that he and the ECB support a strong dollar.
I thought after hearing that, the Euro would drop. I personally placed a trade at 4482 short. But for the next couple hours the Euro did not drop. Finally the Euro dropped and dropped quickly to 4446, only to find lots of bids in that area to bring it back to 4480.
Statistically speaking I have not found a good read on the Euro direction. Im just keeping my eyes and ears open to a catalyst that will get the Euro moving. What Have noticed is that the strong Support level I gave at 4470 is really being tested. On bullish moves, the Euro has been getting stopped by less significant levels.
What I mean by that is yesterday the Euro broke through my topside key level of 4554 and was stopped by my 4575 level, bringing back to test the medium and strong supports at 4498 and 4470. During today's asian session the euro rallied once again and was stopped by the 4554 level, returning back to sub 4498 levels. And now, as I write it looks as if though the weak support of 4519 has stopped the Euro's post conference rally.
This is very significant to me, I feel as though the catalyst that i am waiting for will come fairly quick. Keep a look out for the 4470 or 4554/4575 breaks. I can only say that a sustained break of either of those levels will most likely show short term direction.
I hope you find this update helpful. I tried to convey some of the things that go on in my head. I will be keeping an eye to see when higher probability trades emerge and I should post some of them in the chat.
Good luck all and happy trading.
Right when the conference began the Euro began to climb. it ascended from 4477 to 4520. Before the end of the conference the Euro was back to sub 4480. During the conference Trichet was asked a question about the Euro being overvalued and hurting some of the European Nations. Trichet really hesitated. I do watch Trichet a lot, and i have never seen him try to avoid answering a question the way he did. He answered by saying that he and the ECB support a strong dollar.
I thought after hearing that, the Euro would drop. I personally placed a trade at 4482 short. But for the next couple hours the Euro did not drop. Finally the Euro dropped and dropped quickly to 4446, only to find lots of bids in that area to bring it back to 4480.
Statistically speaking I have not found a good read on the Euro direction. Im just keeping my eyes and ears open to a catalyst that will get the Euro moving. What Have noticed is that the strong Support level I gave at 4470 is really being tested. On bullish moves, the Euro has been getting stopped by less significant levels.
What I mean by that is yesterday the Euro broke through my topside key level of 4554 and was stopped by my 4575 level, bringing back to test the medium and strong supports at 4498 and 4470. During today's asian session the euro rallied once again and was stopped by the 4554 level, returning back to sub 4498 levels. And now, as I write it looks as if though the weak support of 4519 has stopped the Euro's post conference rally.
This is very significant to me, I feel as though the catalyst that i am waiting for will come fairly quick. Keep a look out for the 4470 or 4554/4575 breaks. I can only say that a sustained break of either of those levels will most likely show short term direction.
I hope you find this update helpful. I tried to convey some of the things that go on in my head. I will be keeping an eye to see when higher probability trades emerge and I should post some of them in the chat.
Good luck all and happy trading.
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