Once again, I apologize for the small delay.  I have been overwhelmed by different things on my agenda.

This trade week opened up with a bit up with a bit of dollar bull fever.  The markets opened with a slight gap in the yen crosses as well.  As for the Euro-Dollar, as i write this post it is lingering in the 39' teens.  I expect the euro to drop a bit in the next several hours.

This week we have tons of data out of the U.S., along with a rate decision on Thursday followed by the ECB conference.  Also don't forget about the G-7 taking place this weekend.  The G-7 might decide to comment on the dollar's fast appreciation, jolting the market and the Euro might become subject to idiotic and erratic movement.  Just a heads up.  I will talk about the U.S. NFP and the ECB rate decision later in the week.

Statistical Overview

This  is a new part of my Weekly Outlook that i want to include.  What this part will include is my view of longer time frame  snapshots of the Euro and if there are any possible statistical scenarios that have a chance of playing out. 

Right now the Euro has descended over 600 pips in the last 12 trading days and over 1100 pips in the last 42 trading days.  This is statistically significant because if my analysis is correct, the Euro would descend only about 370 pips 78% of the time in 21 days.  So, that being said, I would not be surprised if the euro retraced a bit.  Maybe reaching 1.4+ in the days to come. 

G-7 over the weekend, NFP on Friday, and ECB rate decision on Thursday.  If the Euro was going to appreciate in the near future, i see this week as good positioning for that.  Just some food for thought.  Also, looking back last year, the dollar appreciated for 10 weeks against the Euro.  What do you know this year we are presently on the 10th week of dollar appreciation against the euro.    What a coincidence!

Key Levels for the Week

As usual, here are the key levels for the week.

Weak:

1.3896, 1.3924, 1.3952, 1.4099, 1.4120

Medium:

1.3749, 1.3826, 1.3987, 1.422, 1.4057, 1.4148, 1.4190

Strong:

1.3805, 1.4351

That's it for now.  Like always, I wish everyone a good and profitable trade week.

X.

Hello all,

We have a very interesting week starting tomorrow.  Tomorrow during the U.S. session we have the vote for Bernanke's re-confirmation and on wednesday we have the fed's decision.  Fundamentally, those are large events.  Last week, due to the comments out about the Benanke confirmation, equities fell along with with the yen appreciating.  Fear was instilled in the markets last week and now some risk is back in the market due to contrary comments out about the vote tomorrow.  I would keep an eye on all things related to this event because there is a high probability it will cause the markets to react abruptly.

As far as the Euro is concerned, we have been stuck in a 150 pip range for a few days now.  I think the market is positioning itself for a move out of this range soon.  I dont see why either the vote tomorrow or the decision on wednesday wouldnt be the catalyst to cause the move we need.  I will be on the look out for these exagerated moves tomorrow and wednesday, as they may set the tone for the next few days or more.

I have been analyzing the markets lately and the moves that have happened.  As far as the Euro is concerned, I feel as if we are poised to make another leg lower.  The comments out of big money institutions have called a 1.36-1.38 for weeks now.  I am of the same opinion.  However, statistically speaking we have moved to far too fast.  If my numbers serve me correctly, I feel as if we should test the 1.43's again.  I will be watching the markets closely as the events to come might drop the Euro abruptly only to see it rise in the medium term.

Also, looking at seasonal patterns the euro typically depreciates against the dollar around this time.  Last year, starting post-chistmas, the Euro gave back about 1600 pips against the dollar in about 10 weeks.  This year the Euro has gave back about 1000 pips against the dollar in eight weeks. 

Everything i've said is my opinion and not fact, i just try to share bits and pieces of what goes on in my head.  This weeks Euro key levels are as follow:

Trade Week Key Levels

Weak:

4317, 4282, 4261, 4247, 4142, 4100, 4058, 4016, 3932, 3869

Medium:

4296, 4233, 4191, 4121, 4086, 4044, 3988, 3883

Strong:

4352, 3834

Like always, if anyone has any questions about my levels or how to use them, please ask me in the chat or post a comment to this update.

Good luck this week and when in doubt, stay out.

X

As every one knows the Euro downtrend picked up some speed today during the Asian and European Sessions.  As I write this we are hovering 4100.  I only posted key levels to the 4200's.  Here are the Key levels to the downside.

Weak:

1.4190, 1.4106, 1.4043

Medium:

1.4232, 1.4148, 1.4085, 1.4018

Strong:

1.4351, 1.3980

Equities, Gold and Oil are all down today.  we have moved 170+ pips today.  Beware of 4085 sustaining a break.  We could fall quickly.

Good Luck and i hope no one got caught on the wrong side today.

X

As i write this update the euro has came down 90+ pips in the last 90 min.  The level of 4232 gave way.  i anticipate a return to that level because we have traveled too far too fast.  some more liquidity and consolidation is needed in my opinion to move further down. 

In regards to the data that came out yesterday...  The German Zew came out worse than expected.  Bad news out of Europe only helped fuel the already bearish Euro.  With Greece still in trouble and after seeing bad data out of the strongest economy in the Eurozone i find it hard not to sell off. 

Later today, we have Inflation data out of Germany and the United States.  German PPI out during early Europe and U.S. PPI out early U.S.  We also have housing starts out during the U.S. Session.  Keep an eye on that data as it might move the market .  A sudden jolt might follow the news allowing a better position.

The next levels i am looking at for the Euro is 4147 on the down side.  It looks like the weak key level at 4190 is holding right now but if downside pressure continues, i expect that to go. 

That is it for now. 

Well we have a little shorter than usual trade week due to Martin Luther King Day.  Last year MLK day was a horrible day for equities.  Bond yields were pretty much where they are now.  Beware trading on Monday because liquidity will be low and moves may be exaggerated. 

On the books this week we have some German fundis out like the ZEW, and all this week we have inflation data out of the U.S.  Be mindful of when this data comes out because it may jolt the market and the worst thing to do is be on the wrong side of the market when this figure comes out.

As promised I am going to be posting my Key Euro Levels for this week.  Those that have questions about my key levels can ask me in the chat as well as posting comments.

Weak Levels:

1.4281, 1.4295, 1.4393, 1.4505, 1.4575

Medium Levels:

1.4232, 1.4316, 1.4407, 1.4547

Strong Levels:

1.4351, 1.4463


If the Euro beaks any of the last levels i will post more levels pertaining to the range we fall into.  I also do want to add that as ive been analyzing the Euro today, i have noticed that downside movement have been far and fast.  Statistically speaking i would not be suprised if we headed back towards 4500+ in the days or weeks to come.  Downside pressure is still high.  Keep an eye on the 4351 key level, if that level is broken and sustained we could possible fall quickly to 4232. 

I will be in the chat periodically if anyone has any questions.

Good Luck and Happy Trading!!!

X

Well I was anticipating today to be a catalyst for the euro to bust out of is current range of 4470-4575.  I guess I need to wait a little longer for that to happen because all through the european session the euro drops, statistically i should have taken a long at 4480 but i wanted to wait for the Trichet speech.

Right when the conference began the Euro began to climb.  it ascended from 4477 to 4520.  Before the end of the conference the Euro was back to sub 4480.  During the conference Trichet was asked a question about the Euro being overvalued and hurting some of the European Nations.  Trichet really hesitated.  I do watch Trichet a lot, and i have never seen him try to avoid answering a question the way he did.  He answered by saying that he and the ECB support a strong dollar.

I thought after hearing that, the Euro would drop.  I personally placed a trade at 4482 short.  But for the next couple hours the Euro did not drop.  Finally the Euro dropped and dropped quickly to 4446, only to find lots of bids in that area to bring it back to 4480.

Statistically speaking I have not found a good read on the Euro direction.  Im just keeping my eyes and ears open to a catalyst that will get the Euro moving.  What Have noticed is that the strong Support level I gave at 4470 is really being tested.  On bullish moves, the Euro has been getting stopped by less significant levels.

What I mean by that is yesterday the Euro broke through my topside key level of 4554 and was stopped by my 4575 level, bringing back to test the medium and strong supports at 4498 and 4470.  During today's asian session the euro rallied once again and was stopped by the 4554 level, returning back to sub 4498 levels.  And now, as I write it looks as if though the weak support of 4519 has stopped the Euro's post conference rally.

This is very significant to me, I feel as though the catalyst that i am waiting for will come fairly quick.  Keep a look out for the 4470 or 4554/4575 breaks.  I can only say that a sustained break of either of those levels will most likely show short term direction.

I hope you find this update helpful.  I tried to convey some of the things that go on in my head.  I will be keeping an eye to see when higher probability trades emerge and I should post some of them in the chat. 

Good luck all and happy trading.

 

In this update I would like to use today's price action as an example of how I use my key levels to help find a good entry point when a trade is emerging.

Ok.  We started the trade day yesterday at 1.4513.  a weak support is right above that at 4519.  the price lingered at the 4519 key level, before it began to fall.  for the next 3 hours the euro fell breaking medium support at 4498, but not breaking the strong level at 4470.  the 3 hour consecutive drop at that time frame would indicate to me that a trade could be emerging.  I would need to make sure there was no fundamental based comments, or fundi data out.  if there was not, then i might want to take a long targeting 20 pips. 
Reason being, the euro traveled about 50+ pips in 3 hours and i didnt think that at that time of day and after moving that much, that the euro had enough strength to sustain a break of that strong support.

At 1600GMT the euro tried once again to break the 4470 strong support, but at that point it started its rally.  At 1800GMT the euro was approaching the medium support at 4554, at after accending 75+ pips in 2 hours, i did not feel the euro had the strength to bust that key level.  So at 4540 i shorted, anticipating a retrace to the weak support at 4519.  I closed it out at +20 and called it a day.

This is how i use my key levels in conjunction with other indicators to find entry points and exit points.  I hope this post is usefull.  If anyone has questions please feel free to ask me in the chat. 

Happy Trading!

X

Ok this is the first week i will be posting my Euro key levels.  Let me explain a bit how i use them.  First off, i do not consider a level broken until the next 30 min opening is open.  So, if i have a strong key level at 4470 and withing the 30 min interval break through it to 4455 then back up, and at the close it is at 4473 i would not consider that broken.

Next thing, is be mindful of the move.  If the Euro has been consolidating for many hours and all of a sudden breaks a medium key level dont make a trade to follow it nor a trade to retrace it.  A good time for a trade would be, 4-7 consistently downward pressure.  we moved about 70 pips in the past 3-3.5 hours and are approaching a medium or strong support.  There i would take the retrace trade for 10-20 pips.

Ok.  Now i have three types of levels.  Weak, Medium, and Strong.  Strong levels tend to attrach price and are harder to sustain breaks.  Medium levels are pretty hard to break once a move has been exagerated.  Weak levels are more like levels indicating if a price movement is continuing or might consolidate.

Weak Levels:

1.4603, 1.4575, 1.4519, 1.4393, 1.4323

Medium Levels:

1.4638, 1.4554, 1.4498, 1.4414, 1.4295

Strong Levels:

1.4470,1.4351

If any additional levels are needed during this week i will post them. Any questions on how to use them can be answered when time allows, in the chat.  I will try to update them weekly on Sunday, if not then hopefully by late NY on Mondays.

Happy trading all.

Ok, its been a while since I wrote a post so lets see how this one flows.  As I have been trading more and more I have developed a good way to trade and works for me.  As i said in my last post, I use more of a quantitative analysis approach.  I have always found comfort in numbers.  So from this moment on what i would like to contribute to this site are key levels in the EuroUsd and live trade recommendations in the chat when time allows.  Due to the fact that i am constantly busy either analyzing price movements and updating data, i dont feel comfortable enough to comment on that much fundamental data.

Key Levels

Ok these key levels are typically updated once a week.  I typically update them over the weekend when time allows.  This weekend I was a bit busy and will update them later this evening.  I will most likly post keylevels within a 300 pip range of current market price.  The way that my key levels work is I rate the strength of the key level.  There are 3 types, the first are weak levels.  the 2nd are medium and the third are strong levels. 

As time progresses I will begin to show how these levels are used in conjuction with my quantitative analises to better predict retracement points.  I will update this post hopefully by London open tomorrow. 

That is about it for now.  If there are any questions please comment the post and i will try to answer in the following update.  Also feel free to ask me questions when i am in the chat. 

Later all and happy trading.

Hello all, this is X

All of you might know me in the chat or have seen some comments that i have made in the past.  What i want to do with this current blog is indicate what experience i have, where my trading began, what my trading style is and what my blogs will be looking like.

History

My trading career started a little over three years ago; I started in April of 2006.  A little after that, I encountered a website called FXINSIGHTS and that was where I meet the "MOD".  Within in that year and the following year, I traveled to Tennessee and my the FXINSIGHTS team twice.  Piggybacking, trail and error and persistence is what has led me to where I am now and where i hope to be in the near future.  I currently manage one account and manage my own account.  I also am finishing up the Mihalo school of business as a statistics and MS major.  The history of my trading style has changed immensely through the years as well.  I began using technical indicators then used 30 min. openings in conjunctions with them.  After my statistical mind evolved i began to use my own type of quantitative analysis, which incorporates statistics, algebra, and time in the form of intervals to indicate when and where currency price will most likely stop and turn around.

Future Blogs

What I want to begin doing with these blogs is post the fundematal events i will be keeping my eye on and as we get close to them what I think might be happening based on what prices have done leading up to that event.  I also want to discuss certain collelations the Euro has such as Gold, Crude, S&P, and the Dollar Index.  So, if I have any things to say about those correlations or currency prices (especially the EU), I will do so.

Community Help

Due to the fact that i am new to this, it would help if members that read my blogs would leave feedback of questions so that i can have a better idea what to write about in the succeeding blog.  Any questions left will also most likly be answered in the following blog.  Well, this is it for now.  Happy trading and good luck to all. 

P.S.  I am almost always logged in to the chat, so any immediate questions good be answered in there if time allows.